GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack out of Congress in 2010?
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Desert Observer's Page Palm Springs, California. The prospects of Mary Bono Mack, incumbent 45th Congressional District Representative, ending her congressional career in 2010 are close to nil! There's no indication she plans to retire and few knowledgeable Democrats expect a party nominee to take her seat that year. So, what's the big deal with The Desert Sun front page announcement that Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet has filed papers indicating he may challenge Bono Mack in 2010? |
The real challenge by Democrats for the 45th CD seat will take place in 2012. That's the year President Obama will be up for re-election and his coat tails may prove sufficient to carry a congressional seat challenger along with him to victory. Also, Republican party voter registrations continue to decline in the district and the offset is seen by increases of Democrats and Decline-to-State voters. That too is expected to play a significant role that favors Democrats in the 2012 contest.
The 2010 45th CD race is viewed by many as a warm-up effort leading to the main event in 2012. It's often considered a smart move for interested candidates to file paperwork early. That puts them at the head of the pack and on the starting line. Potential backers and existing supporters are put on notice and the budding candidate may then weave congressional campaign moves into schedules and activities. The free publicity that automatically accrues in the time leading up to the actual primary election is worth its weight in gold for the name recognition it provides. Others contemplating a run for the seat in either 2010 or 2012 will need to make a move at an early date in order to avoid seeing party support align with the guy already at the starting gate.
What are Steve Pougnet's prospects in 2010 or 2012? There are a number of campaign negatives associated with him that a 2010 "warm-up" effort may help resolve. He has little campaign experience. His first run five years ago in Palm Springs was an amateur hour effort. His second run, almost two years ago for Mayor of his city, was a "cakewalk", for he didn't face serious competition and did almost no campaigning. So, while he clearly possesses business, management and people skills, his campaign abilities need testing and refining. A "warm-up" 2010 race would give him campaign experience, allow for greater name recognition in the district and, of course, make possible the creation of a district-wide campaign organization ready for 2012.
Pougnet has a few less-than-positive factors associated with his name that he'll need to overcome. As Mayor of Palm Springs, he represents the most liberal - some would claim libertine - community in the district. Whether it's marijuana collectives, same-sex marriages, or the huge LGBT community, he is associated with a movement that's far from the moderate middle-of-the road reputation that a candidate may need in order for Democrats to take the 45th CD seat.
The first job of any aspiring 45th CD Democratic candidate will be to secure the party's nomination from the June 2010 primary elections. That's when Democrats will select their candidate to face off against Rep. Mary Bono Mack (should she choose to run again). Many non-Palm Springs Democrats are less than enthusiastic about Mayor Pougnet, for he hasn't been particularly supportive of local party candidates. He was pretty much politically absent-without-leave during last year's election activities and nothing noteworthy was recorded in terms of his involvement on behalf of Democratic candidates or ballot measures. Add to that a bit of recent scuttlebutt he strongly favors re-election of Palm Springs city council member Chris Mills, a Republican, later this year, and the question of his Democratic party credentials becomes, in some quarters, somewhat suspect.
Pougnet's early announcement is a risky gamble. If it serves to scare off potential contenders, it's a smart move. If it serves to pull others into the race early, he risks eating their dust and ruining his prospects for 2012. The party's previous 45th CD candidate, Julie Bornstein, has yet to be heard from. However, she's not ruled out another run and if she decides to take up the Pougnet challenge, he may find that genuine campaign experience really makes a difference.
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